Monday, July 6, 2009

Breaking Down Serena Williams vs. Victoria Azarenka

serena williams
Of the four women’s quarterfinals, one in particular stands out for me: the Serena Williams-Victoria Azarenka match.

The two have met twice, and each time one of them was less than 100%. In Australia, Azarenka won the first set against Williams, but retired because of heat stroke. At their last meeting in Miami in April, Williams was injured and lost badly. Tuesday’s match will be their first match where both are at full strength.

Look for Williams to try to establish good rhythm on her first serve, which was inconsistent on Monday against Daniela Hantuchova. She will need to improve on Monday’s 54 percent. When she serves well, she can take more chances on her return game and exert tremendous pressure on Azarenka. Williams’s backhand is the best in the game and she hits it with authority to both corners. You won’t see her run around her backhand much; in fact, sometimes she slides to her right to crush a backhand rather than playing a forehand, particularly on a ball up the middle that she wants to “pull” into a righthander’s backhand corner.

Williams’s forehand looks improved, with better brush on the address of the ball, more feel than in the past and more topspin for control. While she will hit more winners with her forehand, she will also miss it more. If there is a side more vulnerable to breaking down, it’s Williams’s forehand. When she missed a forehand today, she let out a plaintive, “No!” admonishing herself for the error. She will make mistakes, of course, but Williams will also keep ripping the ball aggressively. In terms of tactics, Williams takes a page from Jimmy Connors: I’m not adapting to your game because you’re going to have your hands full with mine.

In shot selection, look for Serena to try to control the center of the court and “turn” on inside balls, much like a hitter will pull an inside pitch. Paul Wardlaw, the women’s coach at Brown University, calls this shot selection strategy the Directionals and it is a staple of most successful aggressive baseliners.

One serve I always look for from Williams is her big slice serve up the T in the ad court. When she is playing well, this is her favorite serve. Against Azarenka, who also prefers her backhand, this could be a key for Williams because Azarenka’s return will probably go to Williams’s backhand and she can lace into the first ball and take over the point. There will not be a lot of extended rallies. It will be power tennis. Azarenka said as much Monday, predicting that the match will be decided in the first four shots of each point.

Azarenka seems able to channel her intensity in a productive way, even when she gets angry. It’s a rare attribute. She may need to pace herself to avoid boiling over physically because the London forecast is for a hot, humid day. This should help Williams’s serve because the ball will travel faster in the heat. Both players train in hot weather, with Azarenka playing in Scottsdale, Ariz., and Williams based in Miami.

Tactically, look for Azarenka to serve to Williams’s forehand and use the body serve. Although Azarenka’s average serve is 95 miles per hour, she spots it well and wins a high percentage of points when her first serve is in. If Serena gets a lot of second serves, Azarenka will struggle. Once in the rally, look for Azarenka to go at the Williams forehand. She may borrow a tactic Elena Dementieva used against Serena, when Dementieva refused to get in a cross-court backhand rally with Williams. She changed direction immediately and went down the line to Williams’s forehand. One way to think tactically about Williams is to see her as a lefty with a big forehand. That’s how awesome her backhand is. Aiming more balls to her forehand could break that side down.

Azarenka has a chance if Williams doesn’t serve well and if she can hit with penetration into Williams’s forehand. Although I think Williams will ultimately prevail, it promises to be a great Wimbledon quarterfinal.


Of the four women’s quarterfinals, one in particular stands out for me: the Serena Williams-Victoria Azarenka match.

The two have met twice, and each time one of them was less than 100%. In Australia, Azarenka won the first set against Williams, but retired because of heat stroke. At their last meeting in Miami in April, Williams was injured and lost badly. Tuesday’s match will be their first match where both are at full strength.

Look for Williams to try to establish good rhythm on her first serve, which was inconsistent on Monday against Daniela Hantuchova. She will need to improve on Monday’s 54 percent. When she serves well, she can take more chances on her return game and exert tremendous pressure on Azarenka. Williams’s backhand is the best in the game and she hits it with authority to both corners. You won’t see her run around her backhand much; in fact, sometimes she slides to her right to crush a backhand rather than playing a forehand, particularly on a ball up the middle that she wants to “pull” into a righthander’s backhand corner.

Williams’s forehand looks improved, with better brush on the address of the ball, more feel than in the past and more topspin for control. While she will hit more winners with her forehand, she will also miss it more. If there is a side more vulnerable to breaking down, it’s Williams’s forehand. When she missed a forehand today, she let out a plaintive, “No!” admonishing herself for the error. She will make mistakes, of course, but Williams will also keep ripping the ball aggressively. In terms of tactics, Williams takes a page from Jimmy Connors: I’m not adapting to your game because you’re going to have your hands full with mine.

In shot selection, look for Serena to try to control the center of the court and “turn” on inside balls, much like a hitter will pull an inside pitch. Paul Wardlaw, the women’s coach at Brown University, calls this shot selection strategy the Directionals and it is a staple of most successful aggressive baseliners.

One serve I always look for from Williams is her big slice serve up the T in the ad court. When she is playing well, this is her favorite serve. Against Azarenka, who also prefers her backhand, this could be a key for Williams because Azarenka’s return will probably go to Williams’s backhand and she can lace into the first ball and take over the point. There will not be a lot of extended rallies. It will be power tennis. Azarenka said as much Monday, predicting that the match will be decided in the first four shots of each point.

Azarenka seems able to channel her intensity in a productive way, even when she gets angry. It’s a rare attribute. She may need to pace herself to avoid boiling over physically because the London forecast is for a hot, humid day. This should help Williams’s serve because the ball will travel faster in the heat. Both players train in hot weather, with Azarenka playing in Scottsdale, Ariz., and Williams based in Miami.

Tactically, look for Azarenka to serve to Williams’s forehand and use the body serve. Although Azarenka’s average serve is 95 miles per hour, she spots it well and wins a high percentage of points when her first serve is in. If Serena gets a lot of second serves, Azarenka will struggle. Once in the rally, look for Azarenka to go at the Williams forehand. She may borrow a tactic Elena Dementieva used against Serena, when Dementieva refused to get in a cross-court backhand rally with Williams. She changed direction immediately and went down the line to Williams’s forehand. One way to think tactically about Williams is to see her as a lefty with a big forehand. That’s how awesome her backhand is. Aiming more balls to her forehand could break that side down.

Azarenka has a chance if Williams doesn’t serve well and if she can hit with penetration into Williams’s forehand. Although I think Williams will ultimately prevail, it promises to be a great Wimbledon quarterfinal.

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